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Global brokerage Nomura has revised its outlook on the Indian steel sector, highlighting strong domestic demand, global supply discipline, and Chinese output cuts as key positives.
The firm raised its target price for JSW Steel to ₹1,300 (from ₹1,220) and for Jindal Stainless to ₹1,150 (from ₹1,080). It projects a robust 25–27% EBITDA CAGR during FY25–28 for these companies.
China’s crude steel production fell 2% year-on-year in Jan–Jul 2025, with sharper curbs expected in H2 to control oversupply. Meanwhile, India posted a 9% rise in crude steel production and 8% growth in consumption during Apr–Jul FY26, reflecting resilient domestic momentum.
Nomura expects continued safeguard measures, disciplined imports, and a likely 5% uptick in domestic HRC prices in H2FY26, reinforcing a positive long-term outlook for Indian steelmakers.
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