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Indian steel exports at high risk from Europe's new carbon tax: Goldman Sachs

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Ferrous 15 Feb 2024 10:12 AM IST Bloomberg

According to an analysis by analysts led by Emma Jones, there might be an extra $102 to $190 per tonne in tax charges on the flow of Indian steel to the bloc over the next ten years. They stated the range represents 15% to 28% of the current prices for hot-rolled coils and is based on an assumed carbon price of $70.

Policymakers worldwide are seeking to reduce carbon emissions in their fight against climate change, with steel traditionally among the most polluting industries. Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism aims to subject imported goods such as steel to a levy to ensure its own strengthened pollution standards aren’t undermined by trading partners.

The idea has already triggered a hostile reaction from overseas producers, including in Russia and China. Indian mills have been among the most vocal about the potential impact of the tax, dubbing it a “trade barrier,” and New Delhi has been in discussions with the EU for concessions.

“Indian steel producers operate at a carbon intensity level well above the EU and global level, potentially exposing them to elevated charges,” as they rely mainly on coal-based processes, the analysts said. Among producers, Tata Steel Ltd and JSW Steel Ltd have the most direct exposure to the region, Goldman said, highlighting risks of weaker margins or lower sales.