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India’s steel industry is set for a recovery, supported by safeguard duties, seasonal demand, and rising infrastructure spending. Analysts suggest that domestic prices, which bottomed out recently, are now poised to strengthen.
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices are projected to average ₹49,544 per tonne this quarter, compared to ₹51,636 in Q1. The provisional 12% safeguard duty imposed in April has already made India a net exporter for four consecutive months, reversing the import-heavy trend of FY24–25.
With the monsoon season ending and duties likely to extend for another three years, prices are expected to firm up further. At the same time, China’s anti-involution stance, which involves cutting about 30 million tonnes of steel capacity, will help curb cheap imports, giving Indian producers greater pricing power.
Shares of leading steelmakers including Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and Jindal Steel have already risen by about 11% in the past three months, outperforming the broader market.
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