FY25 Starts Weak for Indian Steel Giants – Is a Turnaround Coming in FY26?

Indian primary steel producers entered FY25 under pressure, with EBITDA plunging year-on-year across major players. According to SteelBazaar’s review of Q4 FY24 and early FY25 data, sluggish demand, falling steel realizations, and rising input costs have eroded margins significantly.

Key Stats (FY24 Q4 vs FY25 Q1 Estimates)
Metric    Q4 FY24    FY25 Q1 Est.    Trend
Avg EBITDA/Tonne    ₹6,000–₹7,000    ₹3,000–₹4,500    ▼ Downtrend
Domestic Steel Demand    Flat    Mild Growth    ➡️ Stable
Exports (YoY)    -18%    -5% to -8%    ▲ Recovering
Coking Coal Prices (avg.)    $270/tonne    $220–$230    ▼ Eased

While coking coal costs have moderated, they weren’t enough to offset weak realizations. Flat domestic demand and global price pressures kept mills from fully utilizing capacity, especially in the longs segment.

Key Observations
EBITDA Compression: JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and SAIL all saw operational margins shrink due to weaker price realizations and steady fixed costs.
Utilization Dips: Long product-focused mills are operating at reduced capacity due to tepid infra demand.
Export Outlook: Mild recovery signs in export orders from the Middle East and SE Asia offer hope for FY26.
Cost Relief: Input prices—especially coking coal—are easing, which could lift margins if demand recovers.
Strategic Impact for Buyers & Sellers

Buyers: Expect price stability or slight correction in the short term—ideal window to secure inventory.
Sellers: Margin pressure will force sellers to optimize cost structures and explore exports more aggressively.

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