Decoding the Future of Global Steel Demand: India to Lead Consumption

Decoding the Future of Global Steel Demand: India to Lead Consumption

Global Steel Demand at a Crossroads

The global steel industry is witnessing a transitional phase marked by slowing demand in China, heightened protectionism, and cautious optimism for recovery. While current consumption is moderating, long-term growth is expected to rebound strongly by the late 2020s and early 2030s, led by developing economies.

India’s Ascendancy in Steel Consumption

India is emerging as the centerpiece of future global steel demand. Unlike many economies where output has stagnated, India’s production surged 33% between 2019–2024. With projected demand growth of 8–9% in 2025, the nation is set to drive consumption across construction, infrastructure, and manufacturing. By 2035, Indian demand is forecast to reach 240–260 MMT, making it the largest growth market globally.

Sustainability and the Green Steel Imperative

The rise of green steel is poised to transform the industry. In India, demand is projected to surge from 4.49 MMT by FY30 to an extraordinary 179 MMT by FY50, driven by the construction and infrastructure sectors. This shift underscores the urgency for investment in low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen-based DRI and EAFs.

Strategic Outlook for Industry and Policymakers

• Scale & Modernize: Indian steelmakers must expand capacity while integrating advanced technologies.

• Policy Push: Governments should incentivize green production and strengthen domestic demand through infrastructure projects.