Steel exports up 30% month-on-month, 43% YoY in January

In January, India's steel exports reached 0.9 million tonnes (MT), up 43% YoY and more than 30% month over month. According to preliminary statistics from the Steel Ministry obtained by a media source, the nation was a net importer for the first ten months of the fiscal year (April through January), despite a moderating trend in imports and a matching increase in outward shipments.

Imports at 6.8 MT, up 38% YoY, exceeded exports, which stood at 5.5 MT, by 1.3 MT or 3.6%, for the 10-month period. Imports stood at 5 MT and exports at 5.4 MT in the year-ago-period.

Jayant Acharya, Joint MD and CEO, of JSW Steel, in a recent investor call, said following the recent rise in global steel prices, domestic prices are now close to parity, which, according to him, will have a limiting impact on imports in the January–March period (Q4 FY24).

“However, rising levels of steel imports on the back of a weak global market is a concern,” he said.

Ministry data show that during January, India was a net exporter of steel by a marginal 0.1 MT, breaking a near six-month streak of declining exports.

Finished steel imports stood at 0.8 MT, down 14% MoM (over December), but were up 29% YoY. Indian exports nearly rose after six months of continuous decline.

Price improvements

Market sources say price improvements are expected in the January-March period, generally a “seasonally strong quarter” for steel mills. Steel prices increased in January and also for early February deliveries, over December.

Global prices have increased in Europe by $100-120, and in China by about $40.

Acharya said price changes are also being reflected in export orders, bookings and realisations.

“What you will see during Q4(FY24) will be higher export and you will see a likely limit of imports or maybe lower imports vis-a-vis the last quarter,” he said, adding that the company anticipates “better volumes” (banking on exports).

Import-export trends

Ministry data showed that in January 2024, import of non-alloyed steel – the primary item – stood at 0.6 MT, up 45% YoY, but slipped 12% on a MoM basis. Alloyed and stainless steel imports dipped 13% YoY and by 23% MoM to 0.14 MT.

For the 10-month period (Apr – Jan) non-alloyed steel imports increased 69 per cent YoY to 5 mt, whereas the non-alloyed and stainless steel segment dipped 14% to 1.8 MT.

On the export front, key non-alloyed steel offerings increased 53% YoY to 0.8 MT, while on an MoM basis, it went up by 33%. Non-alloyed steel exports remained almost the same on a MoM basis but dipped YoY (by 20%-odd).

For the 10-month period, exports stood at 5 MT, up 51% YoY for non-alloyed steel, and at 0.4 MT for non-alloyed and stainless steel, down 71%.