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Oil extends losses as economic headwinds weigh on demand outlook

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Energy 22 Jan 2024 06:23 PM IST Economic Times

Oil prices fell for the second day as economic headwinds weighed on global oil demand forecasts, outweighing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and a weekend attack on a Russian fuel export station.

After dropping 54 cents, Brent crude lost 41 cents, or 0.5%, to close at $78.15 per barrel. Front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil futures for February delivery fell 2 cents to $73.39 a barrel, with the contract set to expire later Monday. The more active WTI contract for March was down 30 cents to $72.95 per barrel.

 "This morning's subdued re-open speaks volumes about current sentiment in the crude oil market despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East," IG analyst Tony Sycamore said.

Prices barely budged despite an alleged Ukrainian drone attack at a huge Russian fuel export terminal. Russian producer Novatek said on Sunday that some operations at the Baltic Sea terminal had been suspended because of a fire.

In the Middle East, the Gaza war rages on while the U.S. strikes another anti-ship missile preparing to launch into the Gulf of Aden by Yemen's Houthi militants on Saturday.

The attacks by the Iran-aligned group in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden have disrupted global trade. It has also tightened European and African crude markets and pushed the premium of the first-month Brent contract to the six-month contract to USD 1.99 on Friday, the widest since November. This structure, called backwardation, indicates a perception of tighter supply for prompt delivery.

Oil "production is higher, and the growth outlook in China and Europe is mixed at best, while GDP data this week is expected to show the velocity of the U.S. economy has slowed considerably," he added.

 The latest demand growth forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for 2024 are in a wide range between 1.24 million and 2.25 million barrels per day, although all three organizations expect demand to decelerate in 2025.