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In January, India experienced a second consecutive monthly decline in crude oil imports from its primary supplier, Russia, reaching the lowest level in a year. The preliminary ship tracking data indicated that tighter Western sanctions affected the supply of the light sweet Sokol grade.
India, as the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, responded to the reduced Russian oil imports by increasing its intake of Iraqi oil, as per the available data. Imports from Russia witnessed a 4.2% decline to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd), according to LSEG data, while ship tracking agency Vortexa reported a steeper drop of 9% to 1.2 million bpd.
Serena Huang, Vortexa's head of APAC analysis, attributed the decline to factors such as the narrowing of Russian crude discounts compared to Middle Eastern crude, recent U.S. sanctions on vessels carrying Russian crude above specified price caps, and rising tanker premiums due to Red Sea attacks. These factors have collectively made Russian crude less appealing to Indian refiners in recent months.
The possibility of further reductions in India's imports of Russian crude is anticipated, given the impact of sanctions and shifting market dynamics. Last year, India emerged as a major buyer of discounted Russian oil after Western nations suspended imports following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, Washington's sanctions in December, targeting ships carrying Russian oil above a $60-per-barrel cap, have led to diversions of several tankers meant for delivering Sokol crude to India.
Despite the challenges, India is expected to receive at least five cargoes of Sokol crude in February, compared to none in January, according to LSEG data. The vessel Jaguar is scheduled to discharge at a facility of private refiner Nayara Energy in Vadinar port in western Gujarat state on Thursday, based on the available shipping reports and data.
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