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Oil’s on the boil, and India's finances wouldn’t look that pretty if fuel-stoked inflation rearers its ugly head. A Morgan Stanley study showed if global crude oil prices rise to $110-120 a barrel in the next 3-4 months due to supply or geopolitical concerns, India’s inflation fight could stretch.
A $10 increase per barrel could impact consumer prices by 0.2 -1.4% points on the consumer price gauge across Asian economies. India is somewhere in the middle of the pack, with the CPI rising up to 0.5% points for each $10 a barrel increase in oil prices. Any rise in inflation could derail rate easing plans of central banks, including those of the RBI.
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