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China's coal imports are expected to be little changed or decline in 2024 despite an expected increase in overall demand for the polluting fuel, officials from industries, state-run utilities and traders said on Friday. Tepid growth in shipments by the world's top importer of the fuel could suppress global prices and worsen fears of oversupply, with Indonesia, the world's top exporter of coal, expected to further boost exports from record levels.
Wu Wenbin, head of coal management at utility Guangdong Energy Group, told the China Coal Import International Summit in Xiamen that he expected China's coal imports to range between 450 million and 500 million metric tonnes this year. That compared with a 2023 record of 474.42 million tonnes, surprising analysts who had forecast imports of between 460 million and 470 million tonnes.
Out of six other industry officials Reuters spoke to at the conference, four of them said they expected imports to remain flat or decline in 2024, mainly due to underwhelming growth in economic activity. "I am filled with despair about the state of my industry," one of the traders said.
The other two said they estimated an increase in imports as they expect global prices to become more competitive with local prices. Indonesian coal exports are expected to rise 2.1% to 528.72 million tonnes, despite expectations for production to fall 8.4% to 710 million, said Hendra Sinadia, of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association.
Sinadia estimated higher exports as he projected a smaller share of output going to meet domestic fuel demand. Guangdong's Wu expects shipments from Indonesia to China to fall to 200 million metric tonnes this year, while imports of Australian coal will return to "a normal level" of 80 million tonnes.
The world's top coal user imported a record 222 million tons of coal from Indonesia in 2023, and 62 million tonnes from Australia, data from analytics firm Kpler showed. Despite the largely underwhelming forecasts for imports, total Chinese coal consumption is expected to grow 4% in 2024, higher than the average annual growth of nearly 3% since 2021, Wu said. Wu forecast that the average price of 5,500 kcal/kg coal at northern China ports would further fall to 850-950 yuan per metric tonne in 2024, from an average of 970 last year.
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