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Top Chinese steel provinces cut steel production in January-April

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China 29 May 2024 04:51 PM IST GMK Centre

The production of steel dropped in four out of the seven the primary steel provinces in China between January and April of 2024. Leading steel-producing province Hebei province reduced its production by 3% year over year to 74 million tonnes in January–April after experiencing consistent surges during the first two months of this year. In the same time frame, Jiangsu recorded 42 million tonnes of steel output, which is the same level as last year.

Shandong, Liaoning and Shanxi provinces decreased steel production by 3%, 10% and 13% respectively in the first four months of 2024, totaling 68 million tonnes (74 million tonnes in 2023). Production in Guangxi and Guangdong increased by 15% and 2%, respectively (27 million tonnes in total).

A number of factors contributed to the decline in steel production in the period under review. In particular, this was due to an increase in inventories at Chinese steel mills. Due to low demand, in mid-March they amounted to almost 20 million tonnes at key plants, the highest level since the beginning of 2024 and one of the highest in the same period of the last four years. 

The figure was higher only in 2020, during the pandemic (21.4 million tonnes). In addition, demand for steel in the country’s domestic market remained sluggish in the first four months of the year, especially from the largest consumer, the real estate sector. At the same time, China’s steel exports grew in terms of quantity in the period, but the value of exports fell sharply.

The rationalisation of production also led to a reduction in the margins of steel mills, as domestic steel prices declined every month. For example, in Tangshan, basic prices for hot rolled coil (HRC) fell by almost 6% over four months, from 4127 yuan ($570/t) in January to 3889 yuan ($537/t) in April. Rebar benchmarks also fell by 6%, from 3883 yuan/t ($536/t) to 3655 yuan/t ($505/t).

The steel market recovered somewhat in May, with domestic prices, futures and export offers showing growth. On the other hand, raw material prices are showing an upward trend, and steel warehouse stocks increased by 3% as of mid-May. Nevertheless, China maintains a high rate of economic stimulus.

Therefore, steel mills will either keep production levels unchanged or slightly increase them by the end of the month. As a reminder, in January-April 2024, Chinese steelmakers reduced steel production by 3% y/y – to 343.67 million tonnes. In April, this figure fell by 2.6% compared to the previous month and by 7.2% compared to April 2023 – to 85.94 million tonnes.