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Pricey ore, tepid local demand, Chinese imports weigh on steelmakers' margins

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Ferrous 31 May 2024 04:30 PM IST Economic Times

In order to receive protection in the form of higher import duties, domestic manufacturers have approached the government. A triple issue of increasing iron ore prices, decreasing local finished product pricing, and the looming threat of rising cheap Chinese imports might erode margins for India's leading steel manufacturers. 

This is the third time in the past decade that local producers are confronting such a situation. "The government has in the past imposed duties against Chinese steel products, including those being routed from countries like Vietnam," a top official of a steel company mentioned, adding that the primary steel makers had flagged their concerns to the Centre.

India currently levies a uniform Basic Customs Duty of 7.5% on Semis, Flat and Long products of non-alloy, alloy and stainless steels. "Imports from China and Japan have already gone up last year. Given this kind of situation, India is already under grave threat of import because all major steel consuming economies are shutting their doors on these steel producing countries. We are sure Government will be sensitive to this," said Alok Sahay, Secretary General at the Indian Steel Association stated.

According to Sahay, the Indian Steel Industry is highly vulnerable to surging and predatory import. Iron ore prices have risen 53.6% over a period of 12 months, while benchmark hot rolled coil (HRC) prices remain 4.9% below a year ago levels at ₹54,000 per tonne. The oversupply of steel globally could further accentuate the problem for Indian steel makers.

According to official data, India imported steel worth $ 1.86 billion in April 2024. Of these, products worth $994 million were domestically available. This indicates a preference for imported products due to the lower prices. "This year, the global steel industry is expected to be in an oversupply, which could result in range-bound prices," Rohit Sadaka, director, at India Ratings & Research said.

Iron ore prices in the country are moving on global cues and a record production in FY24 has not been able to cool them. Iron ore output in FY24 stood at 277 million metric tonne (MMT), topping the earlier high of 258 MMT achieved in FY 2022-23. Earlier this week, state-owned National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) raised lump ore prices by ₹250 to ₹6,450 per tonne and fines by ₹350 to ₹5,610 per tonne.

Private miners will soon follow suit. Prices have moved northwards in line with prices in China, a major buyer of Indian iron ore, that has seen a jump of 14% since April 2024. According to Sehul Bhatt, Director-Research at CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics, recent policy support from the Chinese government to stimulate growth in their real estate sector has triggered a global iron ore price rally with product demand zooming.

India's iron ore exports increased 119% to 46 MMT in FY24 due to better realisations in the global market. "That led to a 1.4% decline in overall material availability in the domestic marke Meanwhile, demand from iron making, which includes blast furnaces and direct reduced iron (DRI) production, increased 12%, supporting iron ore prices," he said.