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The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has cautioned that global steel supply is outpacing demand, driven largely by rising exports from China, which have reached their highest levels since 2016.
According to the OECD Steel Committee, global steelmaking capacity rose to nearly 2.5 billion tonnes in 2024, while demand remains subdued in several major economies, leading to renewed concerns about market imbalance and price volatility.
The panel noted that China’s exports jumped over 30% year-on-year, with significant shipments to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. This surge has intensified competitive pressures for producers in India, Europe, and Latin America, many of whom face thin margins and rising input costs.
The OECD warned that such persistent overcapacity—fueled by state-backed expansions and limited consolidation—could trigger trade frictions, safeguard measures, and dumping disputes across multiple regions.
It also urged governments to adopt transparent, market-oriented policies, curb state subsidies, and support the transition to low-carbon steelmaking, particularly through technologies like green hydrogen and carbon capture.
Industry analysts say India remains relatively insulated due to strong domestic demand, but caution that sustained Chinese exports could pressure prices and exports of Indian mills in the coming quarters.
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