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Iron ore prices have slipped to a five-month low as China signals tighter control over steel exports and domestic demand remains weak. Futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell to around 754 yuan per tonne, while Singapore benchmarks neared the $100 per tonne mark, their lowest levels since mid-July.
The latest decline followed China’s decision to introduce a licensing system for steel exports from January 2026, a move aimed at managing outbound shipments amid rising global protectionism and criticism over surging Chinese steel exports. With exports likely to face more scrutiny, traders expect a softer pull on iron ore imports, especially as China’s property sector and construction activity continue to struggle.
At the same time, crude steel output in China fell about 3% in November versus October, marking nearly six months of steady declines and further dampening demand for the key steelmaking raw material. Many analysts, however, believe the downside from current levels may be limited. Mills are expected to rebuild inventories ahead of the Lunar New Year, and any fresh policy support for infrastructure or housing could stabilise prices. For now, the drop in iron ore underlines how closely the market is tethered to China’s steel and policy cycles.
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