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India’s domestic steel demand is expected to grow at around 8% in FY26, implying incremental demand of ~11–12 million tonnes per annum, according to a sector note by rating agency ICRA.
Despite healthy consumption growth, the operating environment for steel producers is likely to remain challenging due to subdued steel prices, sticky input costs, and a weak global backdrop. ICRA expects industry operating margins to remain largely flat at about ~12.5% in FY26, lower than earlier expectations of an improvement, as pricing remains under pressure.
Supply additions are a key factor: the industry has already witnessed ~15 million tonnes of capacity additions over the past 3–4 quarters, with another ~5 million tonnes expected by the end of the current fiscal creating a temporary surplus.
Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, which spiked to ₹52,850/tonne in April 2025 after a 12% safeguard duty, corrected to about ₹46,000/tonne by November 2025. ICRA noted prices are trading below import parity, reflecting continued supply-side pressure.
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