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The Indian government recently raised the windfall tax on petroleum crude and diesel. The tax on crude increased from Rs 3,200 to Rs 3,300 per MT, while diesel, previously untaxed, now incurs Rs 1.50 per litre. These changes, effective from February 16, 2024, follow a previous increase earlier in the month.
The Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) was first implemented on July 1, 2022, to tax the excess profits of energy companies. It aligns India with other countries that tax supernormal profits. The rates are reviewed fortnightly based on average oil prices over the preceding two weeks.
These taxes have impacted the profits of crude oil producers since July 2022. Brent crude futures were around $81.43 a barrel on Thursday. The International Energy Agency revised its 2024 oil demand growth forecast to 1.22 Mn bpd from 1.24 Mn bpd, with an expected supply increase of 1.7 Mn bpd, up from 1.5 Mn bpd.
In the US, crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 12 Mn barrels to 439.5 Mn barrels in the week ending February 9, surpassing analyst predictions of a 2.6 Mn barrel increase, as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
This surge in supply, along with a slowdown in global oil demand, has led to pressure on oil prices. Additionally, concerns about Britain and Japan falling into recession have contributed to the downward trend. Britain's GDP contracted by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2023, following a 0.1% decline between July and September. Similarly, Japan entered a recession at the end of last year. Despite these economic concerns, oil prices have been supported by worries over the Israel-Hamas conflict.
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