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India’s steel price outlook remains cautious as the market weighs the risk of higher imports against a domestic supply overhang. In its December 17, 2025 note, ICRA said the operating environment for steelmakers is likely to stay challenging, with subdued steel prices, sticky costs and a weak external backdrop.
ICRA highlighted that India has seen ~15 mt of capacity added over the past few quarters, with another ~5 mt expected by the end of the current fiscal creating a temporary surplus that continues to pressure prices. Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, which spiked to ₹52,850/tonne in April 2025 after a 12% safeguard duty, fell to around ₹46,000/tonne by November 2025 and were trading below import parity.
While ICRA noted finished steel imports were down ~33% YoY in the current fiscal, it warned that rising trade barriers in key markets (notably the US and EU) could divert surplus global steel into high-growth markets like India keeping import-led pressure alive.
Adding to uncertainty, Reuters reported on November 25, 2025 that India was evaluating a return of safeguard duties after a temporary levy applied earlier in 2025 had expired.
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