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China’s hot-rolled coil market is sending mixed signals in March, with steel mills planning slightly higher total output but a lower daily production rate.
A group of 39 major mills is expected to produce 13.04 million mt of hot-rolled commercial steel this month, up 1.4% from February. However, because March has more days, daily average output is set to drop 8.4% month on month to about 420,700 mt.
The decline is being driven by scheduled maintenance at several mills, temporary production cuts, lower operating activity during the Two Sessions, and some output shifting toward cold-rolled steel products.
Demand remains a key concern. Post-holiday consumption of hot-rolled coil has been weaker than expected, and the usual seasonal recovery in March and April is looking less certain. At the same time, disruptions in steel export orders to the Middle East could redirect more supply into China’s domestic market, adding pressure on inventories.
With demand still soft and market uncertainty continuing, hot-rolled coil prices may remain under pressure through the rest of March unless consumption improves and stock levels ease.
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