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Aluminium prices dropped by -0.44% to settle at 228.3 amid persistent capital outflows from China and disappointing macroeconomic data, which weighed on market sentiment. China, being a crucial player in the aluminium market, saw challenges as its economic indicators continued to underperform, with limited policy support measures exacerbating concerns.
Inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 2.0% week-on-week as of June 14, showing ongoing supply dynamics within China. Meanwhile, the US Manufacturing PMI provided a slight positive note, rising to a three-month high of 51.7 in June from 51.3 in May, surpassing expectations of 51, indicating modest expansion in the sector.
China maintained its key benchmark lending rates unchanged, highlighting constraints in its monetary easing efforts due to narrowing interest rate margins and a weakening currency. Despite global primary aluminium output rising by 3.4% year-on-year to 6.1 million tonnes in May, led by a 7.2% increase in China to 3.65 million tonnes, the market remains pressured by increased imports.
China's aluminium imports surged by 61.1% in May year-on-year, with a notable rise attributed to heightened shipments from Russia amid sanctions imposed by Western countries. Russia significantly increased its aluminium exports to China, particularly after bans on Russian metals by US and UK exchanges in April.
From January to April this year, China imported 500,741 tonnes of primary aluminium from Russia, marking a 91.6% increase from the same period last year.
Technically, the aluminium market experienced fresh selling pressure with a modest 0.81% increase in open interest to 4,369 contracts as prices declined by -1 rupee. Support levels are identified at 227.5, with potential downside testing at 226.5. Resistance is anticipated at 229.8, and a breakout above this level could lead prices to test 231.1.
Also Read : Base metals retreat on dollar strength, demand outlook gloom India's aluminium sector needs $29 Bn to achieve net-zero emissions
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