Breaking News

Govt Enforces ‘Melt and Pour’ Rule for All Steel in Public Projects Nippon Steel expected to finalize U.S. Steel acquisition at $55 per share NMDC Limited reports a 38% drop in Q4 FY24 consolidated net profit RINL to Raise $23 Million Through Land Sales Amid Crisis

Steel & Raw Material Price Trends in FY'25: What Drove the Market?

agricultural.jpg
Business 02 Apr 2025 01:41 PM IST SB Team

SteelBazaar Insight
Steel & Raw Material Price Trends in FY'25: What Drove the Market?
As FY'25 draws to a close, the Indian steel industry has seen a complex mix of opportunities and challenges. Here’s a summary of what influenced the price trends across steel and key raw materials during the year.

🔩 Iron Ore & Pellets:
Domestic iron ore prices dipped by 4% YoY as steel demand weakened and production rose. India's iron ore output climbed to 263 million tonnes (April–Feb FY'25), but exports fell due to reduced demand from China.
Globally, iron ore prices dropped 17% YoY to $100/ton (CNF Rizhao), driven by a glut in inventory at Chinese ports, touching 143 million tonnes.

Pellet prices also declined marginally by 1.5% as sluggish finished steel demand continued.

 Coal:
Coking coal prices (CFR India) dropped by 5%, reflecting subdued buying by domestic steelmakers.
In contrast, non-coking coal prices remained stable, supported by robust domestic production which crossed 1 billion tonnes for the first time. Import reliance also eased by 9% YoY.

🔧 Scrap:
Scrap prices weakened across the board due to higher local generation and reduced imports. HMS (80:20) DAP-Mumbai and shredded scrap (CNF Nhava Sheva) both declined by 5%.
India’s domestic scrap generation rose 7% YoY to 32 million tonnes, and imports shrank by 16%, favoring cost-efficient domestic material.

🧱 Sponge Iron:
Prices declined by 7%, pressured by increased output. India's sponge iron capacity surged to 68.8 million tonnes, and production is expected to reach 55 million tonnes in FY'25.

🏗️ Long Steel Products:
Billets: Fell by 4% due to easing prices in scrap and sponge iron.

Rebars (BF/IF grades): Declined 1%–4%, though support came from NHAI’s new vendor verification norms and limited supply due to mill shutdowns.

Wire Rods: Dipped 4% amid lackluster infrastructure demand.

Global Billets (Black Sea): Dropped 6% on lower demand from Turkiye and Egypt.

📉 HRC (Hot Rolled Coils):
India’s domestic HRC prices saw a steep 11% YoY fall to INR 50,030/t, affected by rising imports.
India’s steel imports reached 10 million tonnes, up 8% YoY.
Global prices also fell sharply:

FOB East Coast India: –13%

FOB Tokyo: –15%

FOB Black Sea: –14%

CNF Antwerp: –13%
Chinese exports surpassed 110 million tonnes, disrupting pricing across Asian and Middle Eastern markets.

🔮 SteelBazaar Outlook for FY'26:
With geopolitical risks, possible tariff interventions (like safeguard duties), and sustained global oversupply, prices are expected to remain under pressure or volatile in the near term.
India may consider protectionist measures to support domestic mills and discourage undercutting by foreign suppliers.

📊 SteelBazaar Takeaway:
Industry stakeholders should closely track raw material inventories, policy changes (e.g., trade duties), and import-export movements for better pricing strategies and sourcing efficiency.