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According to International Energy Agency (IEA) mild winters and a shrinking fleet of diesel cars will cause global oil demand to increase more slowly than expected in 2024, following a decline in developed economies' first-quarter oil demand. It is anticipated that demand will grow by 1.1 million barrels per day, which is 140,000 less barrels than projected in the previous monthly report from the IEA.
It stated that the annual global demand is anticipated to exceed 103 million bpd. According to the Paris-based organisation, during the first three months of the year, demand in OECD countries fell by 70,000 barrels per day. "A historically mild winter acted as an additional weight on OECD heating fuel use," according to the research. Demand was also affected by "structural headwinds such as rising vehicle efficiencies and the declining share of diesel in the car fleet", it added.
"These drags are especially evident in Europe, but gasoil (diesel) demand was weaker than expected in several other key markets." China, the world's second biggest economy, is set to lead demand gains with growth of 510,000 bpd in 2024 and 360,000 bpd in 2025, though that is much lower than the 1.7 million bpd recorded last year. The IEA's forecast for 2025 remain relatively unchanged, with global demand expected to grow by 1.2 million bpd to 104 million bpd.
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