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China’s steel sector is showing an unusual divergence between production and raw material demand, with crude steel output easing even as iron ore imports climb to record levels, according to a recent market report. The data indicate that mills have been cutting back on finished steel production in response to weak demand from construction and property, as well as ongoing efforts by authorities to curb excess capacity and emissions.
At the same time, iron ore inflows into China have remained very strong, reaching new highs. Analysts attribute this to a combination of factors: attractive seaborne prices earlier in the year, restocking by mills ahead of seasonal disruptions, and a preference for higher-grade imported ore to improve efficiency and reduce emissions per tonne of steel. Port inventories have therefore been rebuilt even as domestic steel output has softened.
This disconnect is adding volatility to both steel and ore prices. While subdued steel production and demand put pressure on domestic steel margins, robust ore imports are helping support global iron ore benchmarks. Market participants will now be watching for clearer signals from Beijing on infrastructure stimulus, property support and any fresh production controls, which together will determine whether steel output and ore demand move back into alignment.
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