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Oil prices fell due to concerns about the demand outlook following reports of higher producer prices in the US, which could lead to inflation and higher interest rates, potentially limiting fuel consumption growth. Brent crude futures were down 0.7% at $82.92 a barrel, while the March contract for US West Texas Intermediate crude was 0.5% lower at $78.78. Both contracts had settled higher on Friday due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which offset slowing demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency.
"WTI and Brent eased on Monday morning as investors re-adjust to demand-side fears after a significant jump in US producer price index numbers," said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva. US producer prices increased more than expected in January, raising inflation worries.
Market direction from China after its week-long Lunar New Year holiday and Presidents' Day in the United States are factors keeping trade relatively muted. Additionally, Federal Reserve policymakers on Friday signalled "patience" toward interest rate cuts, which could impact oil buying costs, contributing to a bearish market trend. Over the weekend, tension in the Middle East continued with Israeli raids affecting the Gaza Strip's second-largest hospital and Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi fighters attacking an India-bound oil tanker.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has sufficient spare capacity at an eight-year high of 6.4 million barrels per day to cover most disruptions. However, the International Energy Agency warned of a potential market surplus in 2024, indicating a slowdown in demand growth.
The United Nations Security Council is expected to vote on an Algerian proposal for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict, with the United States likely to veto. In Europe, Russia announced full control of the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, its biggest gain in nine months, ahead of the two-year anniversary of its invasion. The death of Alexei Navalny, President Vladimir Putin's prominent opponent, in a Russian Arctic penal colony on Friday, may lead to new sanctions on Moscow, the world's second-biggest oil exporter.
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