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Oil plummeted after China, the world's largest crude importer reported weak economic data, but prices were set to rise for the first time since September as Middle East hostilities widened. Brent crude futures for March, which expired today, lost 0.3% to $82.60 a barrel. The more actively traded April contract declined 26 cents to $82.24. The price of US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.3% to $77.59 per barrel.
According to an official factory survey released today, manufacturing production in China, the second-largest economy in the world and a major oil user, fell for a fourth consecutive month in January. This suggests that the economy may lose steam at the beginning of 2024. Forecasts from several analysts, including from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), see oil demand growth in 2024 driven primarily by Chinese consumption and signs of a slowing economy there undercut those outlooks.
However, both oil benchmarks are set to rise this month as the Israel-Hamas war has expanded to a naval conflict in the Red Sea between the U.S. and Iran-aligned Houthi militants that has disrupted oil and natural gas tanker shipping routes and added to delivery costs. Other Iranian militant groups in the region have also struck US forces in Iraq, Syria and Jordan.
Still, the widening Middle East conflicts have not halted actual output, and the concerns about lower oil demand growth have mitigated the gains from the geopolitical concerns. US President Joe Biden said he had decided how to respond to the attack without giving further details but added that he wanted to avoid a wider war in the Middle East. In the Israel-Palestinian conflict, Hamas said on Tuesday it had received and was studying a proposal for a ceasefire to the fighting in Gaza. It appeared to be the most serious peace initiative since the war’s first and only brief ceasefire, which fell apart in November.
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