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After years of price pressure from heavy Chinese export flows, Asia’s steel market may be nearing a turning point. Nippon Steel CFO Takahiko Iwai said the China-driven oversupply that weighed on regional pricing looks close to easing as exporters struggle to stay profitable overseas.
Chinese mills lifted shipments to offset weak domestic demand linked to the property downturn, pushing 2025 exports to a record 119 million tonnes (up 7.5%). But rising protectionism is narrowing destinations and adding cost friction, with multiple markets tightening trade measures.
Another pressure point is compliance: China’s broadened export licensing regime, effective January 1, 2026, could further constrain outbound volumes and change where supply lands. Iwai said the regional market appears “near the bottom,” suggesting a gradual supply-demand rebalance that could support steadier pricing and margins through 2026.
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