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Indian steel exports are expected to cool in the coming months as overseas orders soften, particularly from Europe, according to a latest report by Elara Capital. The brokerage noted that exports surged 83% month-on-month in October to around 0.73 million tonnes, largely because European buyers front-loaded purchases ahead of the EU’s forthcoming carbon tax regime. That one-off stocking boost is unlikely to be repeated, and new export bookings for December have largely dried up, except for limited volumes of coated steel.
At the same time, India’s steelmakers are grappling with a squeeze on margins. Crude steel output in October rose 6% year-on-year to roughly 13.6 million tonnes, and early November data indicates production is still increasing. However, domestic prices are slipping, with benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) falling to about ₹46,750 per tonne in November, even as Australian coking coal costs climbed 7%.
Elara Capital expects earnings pressure in the third quarter, estimating that the market can only absorb small price hikes of ₹500–1,000 per tonne. Meanwhile, global steel output dropped 6% in October, with China’s production down 12%, though its exports have picked up ahead of a planned steel export licensing regime from January 1, 2026.
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