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A GTRI note warns that India’s steel and aluminium exports to the EU could face a sharper competitiveness test from January 1, 2026, as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) moves into its definitive regime. While the levy is paid by EU importers, GTRI expects the cost to be pushed back to Indian suppliers through tighter price negotiations, sourcing norms and margin compression potentially forcing 15–22% price reductions to retain EU business.
The report highlights that production routes will matter: BF–BOF steel would attract higher carbon exposure than DRI/EAF routes, while aluminium’s CBAM burden will depend heavily on the power mix (coal-fired power increasing exposure).
A key risk is data readiness, especially for MSMEs. If exporters cannot provide verified, plant-level emissions data, EU authorities may apply default values that can inflate the assessed carbon footprint and cost, even if actual emissions are lower. From 2026, GTRI notes independent verification is required, referencing EU-recognised or ISO 14065–compliant verifiers, and contracts may increasingly include CBAM pass-through and verification clauses.
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