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Copper, gold to get 'largest immediate' boost from Fed easing, Goldman says

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Non-Ferrous 21 Feb 2024 02:57 PM IST Reuters

According to Goldman Sachs analysts, copper and gold are projected to witness the most immediate price increases in the commodities sector due to potential US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. "The immediate price boost from a Fed driven 100 basis point decline in US 2-year rates is the largest for metals, especially copper (6%), and then gold (3%), followed by oil (3%)," Goldman Sachs wrote in a note dated February 20.

On Wednesday, spot gold was trading at a nearly two-week high of $2,030.30/ounce, while three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was trading close to a three-week high of $8,548/metric tonne. The Wall Street bank, however, expects no significant price effects on natural gas or agricultural commodities as micro factors such as seasonal inventory cycles and weather outweigh any impact from rate cuts.

"The positive impact of lower interest rates on both commodity demand and supply makes the commodity price impact ambiguous in theory," Goldman said. "In practice, we find that the demand boost to prices from a lower cost of carrying inventory and from higher GDP via easier financial conditions dominates." The US central bank is expected to cut the federal funds rate in June, according to a slim majority of economists polled by Reuters, who also said the greater risk was that the first-rate cut would come later than forecast.