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China’s cold-rolled steel market, which saw a strong start to 2025, is now facing period of weak demand and excess supply. Early-year growth was driven by equipment upgrades, the “old-for-new” replacement policy, and rising export orders ahead of anticipated tariff changes. Private mills increased production to capitalize on this momentum.
However, by mid-year, seasonal slowdowns and routine maintenance led to reduced output and softening demand. Downstream sectors have been slow to recover, prompting traders to offer discounts in an effort to move inventory.
Despite the current downturn, industry analysts expect a gradual recovery towards the end of 2025. Supportive government policies- particularly those promoting the replacement of older durable goods, investment in green energy infrastructure, and development of electric vehicle charging networks- are expected to lift demand. Actually, improved financing conditions could help downstream buyers restock inventories in the fourth quarter.
Continued incentives from durable-goods replacement schemes, green-transition projects, and infrastructure investment in EV charging and energy storage could support demand. Improved funding access and recent policy support are also expected to spur inventory restocking in Q4, paving the way for gradual market recovery.
As the market moves into July, demand for construction steel is projected to stay relatively steady, aided by improved cash flow at certain construction sites and more favourable weather conditions. While near-term challenges persist, these structural supports position the cold-rolled steel market for a rebound in late 2025.
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