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Australia may move closer to a carbon border levy on select imports as a new carbon leakage review urges the government to assess border carbon adjustments for commodities at higher risk over time. The review says the current Safeguard Mechanism can limit leakage in the short to medium term, but some settings may need reinforcement as decarbonisation targets tighten.
Cement and clinker are highlighted as the easiest starting point because the supply chain is simpler and coverage is clearer. Steel and iron are also flagged among “higher-risk” sectors, alongside lime, glass, hydrogen and ammonia derivatives—though these may take longer due to more complex value chains and partial policy coverage.
Any border measure discussed is import-based and designed to mirror Australia’s domestic Safeguard framework. In practical terms, liability would be tied to emissions above benchmark levels, with adjustments reflecting any explicit carbon price already paid overseas. The review also cautions against export rebates, citing potential conflicts with emissions goals and trade-law complications.
Officials expect limited economy-wide impact, with downstream price effects seen as relatively small versus total product costs—while giving local decarbonising industries more breathing room against higher-emission imports.
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