March Market Flip: HRC-Rebar Price Gap Grows Amid Tight Supply

India’s flat and long steel market shifted gears in March 2025 as the reverse spread between HRC and BF Rebar widened again, marking a key inflection in trade sentiment.

Traditionally, Hot-Rolled Coils (HRCs) trade at a premium over Blast Furnace (BF) Rebars, but for the seventh straight month, this dynamic has reversed — a sign of evolving supply-demand pressures.

🔍 Key Highlights from March 2025:
📉 Reverse Spread Expands to ₹4,600/t
HRC exy-Mumbai (2.5–8 mm): ₹50,300/t

BF Rebar exy-Mumbai (12–32 mm): ₹54,900/t

Spread: -₹4,600/t (vs. -₹4,400/t in Feb)

🚨 What Drove the Price Shifts?
1️⃣ HRC Prices Rise Amid Supply Crunch
March witnessed shutdowns in key production units, reducing market availability.

Imports fell sharply — down 26% M-o-M — due to expectations around the proposed 12% safeguard duty on imported steel.

Mills increased HRC list prices by ₹1,100–₹1,500/t, but buyers pushed back due to still-muted demand.

2️⃣ Rebar Prices Surged on Project Demand
Rebar prices saw a stronger rally: up by ₹2,100/t M-o-M, thanks to supply constraints and robust project buying ahead of FY25 deadlines.

Inventory at primary mills fell by 30%, forcing mills to prioritize project segments over the trade market.

Project rebar prices surged to ₹53,900/t, while distribution channels reported shortages and logistical bottlenecks.

🔧 Market Sentiment Turns Positive on Safeguard Duty Proposal
The 18 March recommendation by the DGTR proposing:

12% safeguard duty on 90% of steel imports

$675/t import threshold for HRC

This move lifted market mood and allowed sellers to raise prices sharply in anticipation. However, traders remain cautious about the actual impact once the duty is imposed.

🌍 Exports to EU Offer Temporary Relief
India’s steel exports, particularly HRCs, saw some revival as:

The European Commission excluded India from anti-dumping duties.

Vietnam, Egypt, and Japan were penalized instead.
This opened a brief export window, giving mills pricing power, though volumes remained modest.

⚙️ Induction Furnace (IF) Rebars at 5-Month High
IF Rebar (Fe 500) gained ₹1,300–₹2,900/t across regions.

Bulk buying in both retail and projects fueled the surge.

Inventory dropped to 7–8 days, pushing mills to hike offers amid a backlog of pending orders.

📈 Raw Material Surge Fuels Cost Pressure
Material    Price (₹/t)    Change (M-o-M)
Steel Billets (Raipur)    ₹41,850    ▲ ₹1,850
Sponge Iron (FeM 80%)    ₹26,200    ▲ ₹1,200
🔮 Outlook for April 2025: Diverging Price Paths
Rebar Prices likely to climb further, supported by:

Limited stock

Project buying

Early-April list prices hiked to ₹55,500–₹57,000/t

HRC Prices may soften, despite mills lifting list prices to ₹52,000–₹53,000/t:

Resistance from buyers remains high

Suppliers may offer discounts to offload old stocks

Domestic HRC prices now near import parity, raising the appeal of imports

⚠️ Will Safeguard Duty Deliver?
While initially boosting sentiment, there is growing concern that unless demand picks up, the safeguard duty may have a limited long-term impact.

💡 SteelBazaar Insight:
In a climate of tightening supply and volatile prices, businesses need real-time pricing intelligence and agile procurement strategies. Stay tuned to SteelBazaar for daily price updates and actionable insights.