Global Steel Industry Outlook: Moderate Growth Amidst Demand Gaps & Price Recovery

The global steel industry continues its upward trajectory into 2025, with the market poised to reach $1,537 billion, growing at a CAGR of 4.6% through 2030. Yet, behind this growth lies a concerning supply-demand mismatch and regional performance asymmetry—especially between Asia and Europe.

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🌍 How Is Regional Steel Trade Shaping Global Leadership?

While China remains the production giant with over 1,020 million tonnes, it faces falling demand (▼1.5%) and increasing export dependency. In contrast, India and ASEAN show stronger domestic momentum, recording demand growth of 3.2% and 4.5% respectively.

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Steel Prices Dip, But Recovery Seen by Q3 2025

Global steel prices, as per the Steel Price Index, have dropped from 100 in Q1 2024 to 76 in Q2 2025, reflecting subdued demand and oversupply. Encouragingly, analysts expect a trend reversal in Q3 2025, with prices inching up toward 81 by year-end.

 

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🏭 Are We Producing Too Much Steel Globally?

With global steel capacity at 2,450 Mt versus expected demand of only 1,772 Mt, the industry faces an excess capacity of 678 Mt—a structural imbalance threatening profitability and efficiency.

 

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🏗️ Which Sectors Drive the Most Steel Demand?

Steel consumption is primarily fueled by construction (35%) and infrastructure (18%), together accounting for over half the market. Fast-growing areas include consumer goods (5.7% growth) and automotive, although the latter remains subdued at 2.8%.

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🔍 Key Observations

• ASEAN and India show the strongest growth in steel demand.

• China leads in production but faces internal slowdown, prompting heavier exports.

• Steel prices may have bottomed out, offering procurement windows.

• Excess capacity remains a systemic risk, especially in regions like Europe.

• Construction & infrastructure continue to dominate demand, shaping policy focus.

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🔧 Strategic Impact

• Capacity additions must align with regional demand forecasts to avoid price crashes.

• Buyers should plan procurement cycles to leverage Q3–Q4 recovery windows.

• Countries like India must manage infrastructure growth with raw material access.

• Export-heavy nations may face anti-dumping actions and trade restrictions.

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